Tuesday, September 14, 2021

Bowlsby Clown Show on Conference Realignment ???

Bob Bowlsby Big 12 Commissioner comments over the weekend.  

What, What???  We went from being on life support and barely being alive as a conference,  to now we want to take on the football world, with our bare fists.   It looks like the "Bowlsby Clown Show" is back on air.   Perhaps Bowlsby knows something that we don't.  I have a few thoughts on an expanded Big 12 after adding Cincy, UCF, BYU, and Houston.  

  • Good - it helps stabilize the conference. 
  • Good - it nullifies the affect Texas and Oklahoma will have on the future of the league while we finalize the divorce, and they still live in our house. 
  • Good - it provides some leverage, for expanded markets/time zones,  and TV value when negotiations come up in 2024. 
  • Bad - this kicks the can down the road.   My projection is The Big 12 is in the same position or worse 10 years from now.  The Big 12's new projected revenue distribution is $25-30 million per school, while current revenue distribution is $38 million per school.   A small haircut, but nothing compared to what we were expecting.   However, the SEC is projecting their new revenue distribution per school to be in the $68 - 70 range, more than double The Big 12.   The SEC becomes the Yankees and The Big 12 becomes The Minnesota Twins (the Twins currently have the longest post season losing streak - 17 in row,  many against the Yankees). 
  • Bad - if Bowlsby is accurate in that we may expand to 20 or 20+ teams; either we dilute the revenue share per team, or The SEC is signaling further expansion for a super league, or The Big 12 becomes a second tier conference (Best of The Rest).   My guess is it D - all of the above. 


My prediction for continued conference realignment is one of two scenarios.   1. The SEC continues to add Blue Blood high revenue producing schools to their league and they expand to 20 - 32 teams.   32 would closely mirror the NFL which has been a fairly lucrative Sports League.   2.  The Big Ten and The SEC try to compete in building two competing super leagues.   However, I believe The Big Ten doesn't want to go head to head for two major reasons.   First, The SEC already has 7 out of the top 10 revenue producing schools.  Therefore The Big 10 is trailing with little chance to catch up.   Second reason, is the United State is migrating South and West, which favors The SEC.   The Big Ten is mostly in the Mid West and up North where it is cold comparatively in the Fall.  The Third thing that I believe will happen, and it is only a matter of time.  The PAC 12 and The ACC will lose some of their Blue Bloods and they end up in the same boat as The Big 12.   Possibly then The Big 12 adds some other middle class schools and expands to 20 or 20+ at that time.   

This conference realignment issue is far from over. 

No comments:

Post a Comment