Some Wildcards in Conference Realignment.

The PAC -12, ACC, and The Big Ten formally announced an Alliance.   But, there isn't anything in writing, no formal agreement, or contract.   This is the rest of the conferences saying don't come after our schools SEC, because we don't like your kind around here.   Secondly, The PAC-12 announced they were considering conference expansion, but then said - they will not expand at this time.   The equivalent of let the smoke clear and let's examine battle plan options.   So for the next 6-12 month cycle most major realignment is on pause.   However, their will continue to be discussions and rumors galore.  Yet I think there are a few University Game Changers.   

USC (University of Southern California) Trojans, PAC-12:  The have been rumored to have threatened leaving the PAC-12 and going independent.   What if USC teams up with one or any of the following: Oregon, Washington, or UCLA and they bolt to the SEC.   What does that do to the PAC-12 arguably the weaker and more vulnerable of the conferences outside of The Big 12. 

Penn State Nittany Lions, Big Ten:  Penn State joined The Big Ten in 1996, before that they were independent.   Do we believe Penn State is a loyalist Big Ten Blue Blood?   If Penn State can double their revenue or increase it by a significant percentage, get additional TV exposure, and get more favorable recruiting options.   Me thinks they take that deal with the Devil.   As with USC, what if Penn State can bring Michigan, Ohio State, or Wisconsin along with them.   What does that do to The Big Ten?  

ACC Teams: Clemson, Florida State, Miami: What happens if one, all, or some combination of these teams defect to The SEC.   The ACC has a Grant of TV Rights through 2036.  Which makes this unlikely, and it would be quite costly for teams to leave.   But, nothing is out of the realm of possibilities.  Current payouts for each ACC school is $33 million.   The new TV deal for The SEC is estimated to payout between $68-$70 million.   That is quite a gap and hard to ignore, particularly if you are Clemson, who has won 2 out of the last 5 National BCS Championships.   Particularly when you are at the height of your program, you have leverage, and you don't want to get lapped. 

Notre Dame, Independent/ACC except Football: The last question is always what about Notre Dame football.   Well I suggest they won't do anything until they have to or are forced to do something.   When faced with a possibility of no football last fall due to COVID, Notre Dame jumped in and played a schedule comprised of ACC schools, but they reverted back to independent status this year, even though they made more money as part of the ACC.   I think in a weird and masochistic way they enjoy being a bit different and an outlier in the college football world. 

The Biggest Loser ???

Short answer: Bob Bowlsby The Big 12 Commissioner.   If you have been following College Football realignment, you knew I would get to him.   Honestly, I have been holding off because I'm trying to kind.  But, I just kind find a way to sugar coat his level of ineptitude.  

Bob Bowsby has been commission of The University of Northern Iowa, The University of Iowa, and Stanford.   Most currently Bob Bowlsby is The Commissioner of The Big 12 conference. 

1. At the Big 12 Media Day, no one asks Bowslby about conference realignment.   So, he brings it up.  You can watch it yourselves at the 45:29 mark.   He claims that last time realignment was driven by cable TV.   I think this guy is so out of touch.   To me there are three driving factors leading to realignment.   First, NIL (Name, Image, Likeness) deals.  Secondly, ESPN trying to maintain their lock on college football. Thirdly, the transfer portal - which allows athletes to move and transfer without loss of eligibility.   All of factors together add up to recruiting power.   Bob Bowslby Big 12 Media Day  By the way, a week later OU and UT announced they were leaving the Big 12.  He stated and I quote, "It's not one of the things that keeps me up at night."  I'll bet he doesn't say that anymore. 
2. Bowlsby met with PAC 12 Commissioner a couple of weeks ago.   They say down for a 6 hour meeting.   What came out of that meeting.   The Pac 12, ACC, and Big Ten decided to announce a formal conference alignment.   This is the equivalent of the Remaining 8 schools getting voted off the island in survivor.   The Big 12 is already being treated like a failed conference and being ignored.  

3. 

   Bob Bowlsby - The Biggest Loser

   Oliver Luck has joined The Big 12 as a consultant.   Luck was a former Athletic Director at West Virginia when they eventually landed in The Big 12, during the last realignment.   Luck's role is described as assessing opportunities and navigating the landscape.   Isn't that what Bowlsby is and was supposed to be doing.   How is Bowlsby justifying his leadership of The Big 12.   I'm sure you could argue that firing Bowlsby now makes The Big 12 look weak and instable.   But, everything I read is already suggesting that we are a defunct league.   I think it is time for some real out of the box thinking.  How about forming a committee of MBA's from each remaining school to analyze and suggest some real out of the box thinking. 
   

The Biggest Losers in the room are the College Athletes.   The boys and girls that committed to these remaining 8 schools under an assumption that The Big 12 will be a Power 5 conference and playing teams in a region that is easy to access.   That is those athletes not in college football or basketball. 

Matt Campbell's ISU Future ???

Matt Campbell has been rumored to leave ISU every year for the past three.   Every year someone has texted me and asked if I saw the latest rumor concerning Campbell.   Campbell has done a FANomenal job with the Iowa State Football program.   ISU has risen to national notoriety, during the short tenure of Campbell.   But, I saw this article, and I think it sums up some of my fears.   The rumors and speculation are already starting, and we haven't even played a down yet this season. 

Big 12 Coaches Speculation

If you want to know why Matt Campbell is so awesome.   Listen to his media day press conference.   At the 20:35 minute mark, Campbell is asked how he recruits with Big 12 Realignment going on.   It is awesome, and the confidence just oozes out of him.  Spoiler Alert: "We Win, and We'll Work to Continue to Win.   And if you want to play for a winning team come play for us!!!"

Big 12 Forfeit Policy 2021

The Times They Are A Changin'

 According to a statement provided by the Big 12, if a conference game is canceled due to a team not having enough players—due to COVID-19 or for any reason—that team will forfeit and will be credited with a loss in the conference standings. The opponent will earn a win in conference standings.  This Comish advocates getting vaccinated.  

Dear Hawk, Husker, and Badger Fan ....

 Dear Hawk, Husker, and Badger Fan, 

You think you are better than us ??? Do ya ??? Really ???   Better than the Big 12 or irate 8.  Yes you landed in the right conference.  Yes, you think you have a bigger fan base.   But, let's look at some of the facts 

• Big 12 Population in millions                 
  
• Iowa: 3.1, Kansas 2.9, Oklahoma: 3.9, WV: 1.8 = 11.7
• Big Ten Population in millions
• Iowa: 3.1, Wisconsin: 5.9, Nebraska: 1.9 = 10.9

By Comparison Ohio has a population of 11.6 million.   Georgia has a population of 10.6.   Big Ten fan, you really aren't that much different than remaining 8 schools in The Big 12. 

• Big 12 TV Markets
• Kansas City: 34th, OK City: 44th, Des Moines/Ames: 68th, Wichita: 70th
• Big Ten TV Markets
• Milwaukee: 37th, Des Moines/Ames: 68th, Green Bay, 69th, Omaha: 72nd

Nielson TV Market Rankings

Who's The Devil in The Room - Conference Realignment.

The University of Texas is the obvious answer.   They are the "Johnny" from Karate Kid, and ever other good versus evil movie.   This isn't the first time they have broken up a conference.   They were also responsible for the deterioration of The Southwestern Conference, in 1996, and inevitable demise of The Big 12.    The University of Texas has the biggest athletic budget in the College Football, and the only thing bigger and more ugly in Texas is the Texas size ego and arrogance that goes along with being a Longhorn fan.   

There is also Greg Sankey, the Commissioner of the SEC (Southeastern Conference).   Sankey sat on the Expansion Committee, all while knowing his conference was in covert discussions with Oklahoma and Texas.   Sankey knew this would favorably benefit his conference and his member schools.  The SEC becomes the ultimate Big Kid on The Block and all the TV revenue that comes with it. 

But the Biggest Jack in the Box of all is ESPN.   It is rumored that ESPN brokered the discussion between OU, Texas, and The SEC.  ESPN currently owns the TV rights to the SEC and The College Football playoff.  After OU and Texas leave The Big 12, the plan was to offer up the remaining 8 schools to The American Athletic Conference, which ESPN also owns the TV rights for The AAC.  Which all sounds good except, The Big 12 currently distributed $38.5 million per school and The AAC distributed $7.47 million per member school.   The expanded playoff proposal has been valued at $1 Billion.   So, where do think ESPN's motivation comes from.   It certainly isn't for the greater good of College Football.     What happens if ESPN decides to pay an exit for a college like, oh let's say Clemson, Florida State, etc., to allow them to move to the SEC and the Supreme Super Conference ???

#conference Realignment #collegefootball #big12 #NCAAFootball

What about Basketball and Realignment- You say?

Gravestone ???

Why isn't there more interest in The Kansas Basketball program and the value it brings to  conference realignment?  I ran a across of listing of revenue and expense valuations of the top NCAA Basketball institutions.   The state of Kentucky rules the basketball revenue pot.   Kansas comes in at number 5, and generates $32.2 million on average per year.  Interestingly enough the Top 15 NCAA Basketball programs all average over $20 million per year, but it quickly drops off after that.   Still curious why Kansas is still out in the cold with the remaining Big 8?  The formula that has been published widely is roughly 80% of revenue for athletic budgets comes from football.   Only 20% come from the round ball court.   This is true at Kansas too.   They have roughly $100 million athletic budget, so in Kansas' case it is 70% football and 30% basketball. 

Most Valuable College Basketball Programs

The UCONN Huskies have won 4 NCAA National Basketball Tournament Championships (1999, 2004, 2011, and 2014), which puts the program at sixth-most all-time.  UConn has arguably done more in basketball the last 20 years than Kansas.  Kansas' last National Championship was in 2008.  However, UConn was left out in the cold during the last realignment in the Big East which no longer sponsors football.   In 2019 The UConn Huskies, were forced to go independent to support their football program.   What about Basketball I ask you (they still play B-ball in The Big East) ?

P.S. The Baylor Bears Won the NCAA National Basketball Championship in 2021.   But, for some
reason no conferences seems interested.   Baylor is a Baptist Private University and that could be the weight dragging them down.   But, I still think it demonstrates this realignment is about football and basketball has little bearing on any conference restructuring. 

Iowa State First Team All Americans (3)

Mike Rose - 2020 Big 12
Defensive Player of Year

Iowa State has 3 First Team All Americans.      

Breece Hall (28)- RB *unanimous selection  (Junior)            Charlie Kolar (88) - TE  (Red Shirt Senior)                             Mike Rose (23) at LB  (Senior)                                                                                                                                                                  This is a great year to be getting great press concerning multiple Iowa State football players. 

Preseason All American Selections

Kollar 2020
Mackey Finalist  

There are only three unanimous All-America selections this preseason with Iowa State running back Breece Hall, Oregon defensive end Kayvon Thibodeaux and LSU cornerback Derek Stingley Jr. receiving first-team votes from all participants. Hall is also one of three players back as a first-team selection from the 2020 postseason team. Ohio State defensive tackle Haskell Garrett and Northwestern safety Brandon Joseph are the others.  Hall is considered a long odds Heisman Trophy Candidate. 

Breece Hall - 2021/2022 Heisman Trophy Candidate

Breece Hall 2020 Doak Walker Finalist

Coming off a mesmerizing 23-touchdown sophomore season, Breece Hall is poised to win the Doak Walker Award this fall as one of the leaders within a veteran-laden offense for the Cyclones. The top draft prospect at the position depending on who you ask, Hall does not have a weakness in his game and Hall is Iowa State's first-ever unanimous All-American in program history. Hall was the leading rusher in the FBS during the 2020 season, racking up 1,572 yards on the ground and became the first running back since LaDainian Tomlinson to rush for 100-plus yards with a rushing touchdown in seven consecutive games to start a season. Hall also notched 23 catches for 180 yards and two touchdowns.  In 2020 Breece had a season to remember leading the FBS in rushing (1,572) as he rushed for 100 or more yards nine times.   He also was second in rushing touchdowns (21) only behind Alabama's Najee Harris.   But, perhaps the most impressive stat was his 935 yards after contact (Akin to David Montgomery), which led the nation. 

ISU Commissioner - Back From Hiatus. Conference Realignment Again.

 

I'm Back 

I'm sure by now you have heard the news about Oklahoma and Texas leaving the Big 12 Conference.  I have to say it has been a consuming soap opera for me.   This story has more wrinkles than Grandma coming out of the tub after a long soak.  Therefore, I had to come out of hiatus, as Commissioner to share a few of my thoughts on the subject.                                                                                                                  I'm an Iowa State Homer, but I try to be objective with this conference realignment issue.   My current position is there are many more middle class schools outside of The Big 12 that should be just as worried.

. We aren't the only schools worried about OU and UT to the SEC

  Let me share some numbers.   Based on a report from USA Today 2018-2019 budget year.   (I choose this report because it was the first one that popped up in my Google Search, and most current I found.   https://sports.usatoday.com/ncaa/finances

Based on Athletic Budgets The SEC currently has 5 of the Top 10 Revenue producing Schools - 50%.   The Big Ten has 3, and currently The Big 12 has 2.   When OU and Texas leave for the SEC that raises The SEC to 7 out of the Top 10 and 12 out of the Top 20 - 60%.   The SEC Conference will expand to 16 teams, which means 75%, 12 of the 16 SEC member schools are in the Top 20 in Athletic Budgets.   Do you think  any of the other conferences are concerned?   The Big Ten will have 6 out of the Top 20 - 30%,  half of what the SEC will have.   The ACC has: One, 1, Uno, in the Top 20 and the name is not Clemson.  We can credit Florida State.   The PAC 12 has no one in the Top 20.   Do you think there is a revenue gap, between schools and conferences?  There is real fear of a Super League led by The SEC.  Who could be the next school to get wooed? 

This report doesn't include private schools such as Notre Dame, USC (So. Cal), Baylor, Northwestern, and TCU.      

Power 5 Conference Payouts: 

1. The Big Ten Paid out $55.6 million per school * Rutgers and Maryland received less    
2. The SEC Paid out $45.5 million per school
3. The Big 12 Paid out $38.2 million 
4. The ACC Paid out $34 million per school   
5. The PAC 12 Paid out 32.2 million per school 

The Big Ten is going from the Number 1 revenue producing conference to now Number 2. The new SEC/ESPN TV contract for 2025 is estimated to be worth $68-$70 Million per school.  That is over a $20 million more per school in The SEC over the Big Ten.  The PAC 12 and the ACC will be receiving nearly 50% less than SEC Member School.   So, this week The Big Ten announced an alliance with the PAC 12, and the ACC.   This announcement is not great for  The Big 12.  However, I think it signals the fear the other conferences have of the SEC and a Football Monopoly.   This alliance will address voting over rules governance, playoff expansion, and allow for flexible scheduling within the 3 alliance partners.   Putting higher profile games on TV weekly, that could bolster TV Ratings for BIG 10, ACC, and PAC 12. 

I've included an Interview with Bob Stoops, Former OU Head Football Coach.  I think he extremely forthright in his explanation of why OU is making the move to SEC.  His best line is at the 10:45 mark.  His justification and explanation is hard to argue.   

Texas A&M's Influence on Conference Realignment.

How has Texas A&M possibly influenced College Football Realignment you ask?  The Texas aTm  money machine even has ATM in their name. A&M left the Big 12 in 2010 for greener and more profitable pastures. How has that worked out for them ???  

I found this report published in 2012 reporting on  NCAA Athletic budgets for fiscal year 2010-2011.   2010 was the year Texas A&M left the Big 12 conference.   

https://businessofcollegesports.com/finance/top-50-highest-athletics-department-revenues/ 

In 2010 when Texas A&M, left for the SEC A&M, was listed as the 27th largest athletic budget valued at $74,944,301.   As of my latest search based on a 2018-2019 report, Texas A&M is now listed as the 2nd largest athletic budget valued at $212,748,002.  That is a 286% increase in less than 10 years.   Do you think The University of Texas and Oklahoma University were aware of this increase by Texas aTm after joining the SEC???   How long before Clemson, Penn State, USC, Miami, Michigan, Florida State, Washington, etc. figure out the potential revenue windfall of joining the SEC???  

https://sports.usatoday.com/ncaa/finances

This doesn't take into account wins and losses.   Yet, Texas A&M stunned the college football world Dec. 4, 2017, when it announced Jimbo Fisher had agreed to a 10-year, $75 million deal, after recruiting Fisher away from Florida State. Since 2018 Texas A&M has become a consistent Top 10 football program.   It is amazing how many more options you have when almost tripling your revenue annually.