Big 12 is Expanding ...

It has been reported that The Big 12 is planning to expand and replace UT and OU with 4 schools: BYU, Cincinnati, UCF (University of Central Florida), and Houston.  This is an interesting wrinkle and some more crazy back office shenanigans.   

Before I get into the expansion discussion, I want to address something I heard on Saturday.   It was suggested that Iowa State needs to go to The Big Ten.  Nice theory, but there hasn't been an invitation.  Iowa State and the rest of the Irate 8 are sitting at home on Prom Night without a date.   No one is calling, and there isn't a life raft coming.   It is time to get over it and move on.  The other Power 5 conferences do not have interest as it stands today.   I will add one disclaimer: if Penn State, Ohio State, and Michigan leave The Big Ten that could change the interest in Iowa State and Kansas.  But, until then the best option is to control what you can control and go fill the wholes in your conference.   

First wrinkle: The Big 12 is targeting 3 teams from the AAC (American Athletic Conference).  The AAC currently has 11 teams and if The Big 12 takes Cincy, Houston, and UCF The AAC is down to 8 teams.   to be a legitimate conference you need to have 8 teams.   ESPN holds the TV contract for The AAC and it is rumored that ESPN was behind OU and UT leaving which threatened to blow up the AAC.  Could Bob Bowlsby be on a vengeance to blow up the AAC, intentionally or unintentionally spite ESPN?

Second wrinkle:  The Big 12 left the door open to additional expansion.   If the 4 proposed teams accept, and OU and UT leave, that would leave The Big 12 at 12 teams.   A nice number.   But, SEC = 16, ACC = 15, Big Ten = 14, Pac 12 = 12, Big 12 = 8 or 12 with 4 additions.   Yes the names of the conferences make no sense at all.  Additional expansion could mean The Big 12 lands on 14 or 16.   This definitely leaves the door open for more teams leaving the AAC.   

Third wrinkle: These teams could move quickly.   The AAC requires a 27 month notice from the Grant of Rights conference exit notice.   Which means if the 3 AAC teams give notice they need to do it soon so they are available for the 2024 football season.    Of course there will be negotiations and that timeframe could change, before exit. 

Fourth wrinkle: When we add these 4 teams it extends us from the Central Time zone to covering 3 times zones.    Eastern, Central, and Mountain time zone.  I think this helps The Big 12 and expands our national coverage. 

Jamie Pollard on ISU/Realignment

It was announced that The Big 12 President's are going to meet on Friday to vote on conference expansion.   This buggy is beginning to move downhill and picking up steam. 

5 Reason's ISU Beats Iowa !! !!!

I don't know if you have heard - we have a big game against Iowa on Saturday.   Both teams are ranked in the top 15, and ESPN Game Day is coming to town.   I believe there are many reasons to be optimistic for the Cyclones Saturday.   

1. UNI scored first and ISU fell behind 0-7.   This is Matt Campbell coached team trait.   We have frequently played from behind in the Campbell era.   However, Matt Campbell teams don't panic and find a way to slowly and methodically pick away at the opponent like a Turkey Vulture.   I've heard Turkey Vultures and Cy The Cardinal prefer a good Hawkeye for dinner.  I predict that the Hawkeyes score first and the Cyclones still win the game. 

2. The Iowa State Defense against UNI looked good but not great.   In the first quarter there were three shoe string tackles that if they slipped would have ended in touchdowns but they didn't and Iowa State won the game.   During the final 5 minutes of the game when UNI was forced to push and press, it never felt like we were going to lose the game, and UNI wasn't able to move the ball with any consistency.   In close games and I predict that the Iowa State v. Iowa game will be close, defense plays a big part in the win or loss.   The Iowa State defense comes strong the whole game, for an ISU win.  

3. The Iowa State kicking game looked the best it has ever looked.   Punting, Field Goal Kicking and Kickoff kicking all looked good.   All three of those positions were manned by three different individuals, which also means we have options.   Why do I care about the kicking game.   Well close games are often won and lost by the special teams unit.   Louisiana beat ISU last year when they returned a punt and a kickoff for touchdowns and Iowa State lost 31-14.  This weekend Notre Dame beat Florida State in Overtime.  Florida State missed their kick and Notre Dame made theirs for the win 41-38 OT.   I predict Iowa State wins with a crucial kick. 

4. Purdy and Hall don't have to look great and/or carry the team.   For once we have enough offensive weapons that we don't need one super star to carry us.   Gone are the days when Troy Davis or Seneca Wallace had to carry us.  Spreading the ball around gives us options and a much deeper playbook.   This favors Iowa State again in close games.   I predict someone not named Purdy, Hall, or Kolar has a big game for the Cyclone win.   

5. Charlie Kolar, sat out during the UNI game, and should be back against the Hawkeyes.   Kolar is a Preseason All American Tight End and he was sorely missed.   There was only one pass to the Tight End position against UNI.  He will be back against the Hawkeyes, and plays a big part in helping the Cyclones secure the win against the Chicken Hawks.   Kolar will help create mismatches that were a big part of the Iowa State Offense late in the year last year. 

***  Even if the Cyclones lose the game on Saturday to Iowa our season is NOT lost.   I'm not saying that Iowa will win, but if they do.  The chance of getting into the BCS championship is definitely Gone, Kaput - forget about it.   But, let's be honest our real shot of getting into the BCS is the same odds as getting struck by lightning during an Iowa State Home Game.   We could lose to Iowa, Oklahoma twice or Iowa, Oklahoma, and someone else and end up 9-3 and still have our best season ever.   So Iowa State needs to play fast aggressive and swing for the fences.   This Commissioner is predicting an Iowa State Win.  The last meeting of the Cy/Hawk series in 2019, Iowa Won 18-17 Iowa State hasn't won since 2014.   But, the last three games have been won by Iowa by a total combined spread of 14 points.   These are close games, and I expect another nail bitter on Saturday.   You heard it here first Iowa State will prevail.   We are basically the same team - ball control and limit turnovers.   But, I give the nod to Iowa State because of our multiple offensive weapons and depth/experience.   

#IowaState #ISU #IowaStateFootball #CycloneFootball #Big12

Some Wildcards in Conference Realignment.

The PAC -12, ACC, and The Big Ten formally announced an Alliance.   But, there isn't anything in writing, no formal agreement, or contract.   This is the rest of the conferences saying don't come after our schools SEC, because we don't like your kind around here.   Secondly, The PAC-12 announced they were considering conference expansion, but then said - they will not expand at this time.   The equivalent of let the smoke clear and let's examine battle plan options.   So for the next 6-12 month cycle most major realignment is on pause.   However, their will continue to be discussions and rumors galore.  Yet I think there are a few University Game Changers.   

USC (University of Southern California) Trojans, PAC-12:  The have been rumored to have threatened leaving the PAC-12 and going independent.   What if USC teams up with one or any of the following: Oregon, Washington, or UCLA and they bolt to the SEC.   What does that do to the PAC-12 arguably the weaker and more vulnerable of the conferences outside of The Big 12. 

Penn State Nittany Lions, Big Ten:  Penn State joined The Big Ten in 1996, before that they were independent.   Do we believe Penn State is a loyalist Big Ten Blue Blood?   If Penn State can double their revenue or increase it by a significant percentage, get additional TV exposure, and get more favorable recruiting options.   Me thinks they take that deal with the Devil.   As with USC, what if Penn State can bring Michigan, Ohio State, or Wisconsin along with them.   What does that do to The Big Ten?  

ACC Teams: Clemson, Florida State, Miami: What happens if one, all, or some combination of these teams defect to The SEC.   The ACC has a Grant of TV Rights through 2036.  Which makes this unlikely, and it would be quite costly for teams to leave.   But, nothing is out of the realm of possibilities.  Current payouts for each ACC school is $33 million.   The new TV deal for The SEC is estimated to payout between $68-$70 million.   That is quite a gap and hard to ignore, particularly if you are Clemson, who has won 2 out of the last 5 National BCS Championships.   Particularly when you are at the height of your program, you have leverage, and you don't want to get lapped. 

Notre Dame, Independent/ACC except Football: The last question is always what about Notre Dame football.   Well I suggest they won't do anything until they have to or are forced to do something.   When faced with a possibility of no football last fall due to COVID, Notre Dame jumped in and played a schedule comprised of ACC schools, but they reverted back to independent status this year, even though they made more money as part of the ACC.   I think in a weird and masochistic way they enjoy being a bit different and an outlier in the college football world. 

The Biggest Loser ???

Short answer: Bob Bowlsby The Big 12 Commissioner.   If you have been following College Football realignment, you knew I would get to him.   Honestly, I have been holding off because I'm trying to kind.  But, I just kind find a way to sugar coat his level of ineptitude.  

Bob Bowsby has been commission of The University of Northern Iowa, The University of Iowa, and Stanford.   Most currently Bob Bowlsby is The Commissioner of The Big 12 conference. 

1. At the Big 12 Media Day, no one asks Bowslby about conference realignment.   So, he brings it up.  You can watch it yourselves at the 45:29 mark.   He claims that last time realignment was driven by cable TV.   I think this guy is so out of touch.   To me there are three driving factors leading to realignment.   First, NIL (Name, Image, Likeness) deals.  Secondly, ESPN trying to maintain their lock on college football. Thirdly, the transfer portal - which allows athletes to move and transfer without loss of eligibility.   All of factors together add up to recruiting power.   Bob Bowslby Big 12 Media Day  By the way, a week later OU and UT announced they were leaving the Big 12.  He stated and I quote, "It's not one of the things that keeps me up at night."  I'll bet he doesn't say that anymore. 
2. Bowlsby met with PAC 12 Commissioner a couple of weeks ago.   They say down for a 6 hour meeting.   What came out of that meeting.   The Pac 12, ACC, and Big Ten decided to announce a formal conference alignment.   This is the equivalent of the Remaining 8 schools getting voted off the island in survivor.   The Big 12 is already being treated like a failed conference and being ignored.  

3. 

   Bob Bowlsby - The Biggest Loser

   Oliver Luck has joined The Big 12 as a consultant.   Luck was a former Athletic Director at West Virginia when they eventually landed in The Big 12, during the last realignment.   Luck's role is described as assessing opportunities and navigating the landscape.   Isn't that what Bowlsby is and was supposed to be doing.   How is Bowlsby justifying his leadership of The Big 12.   I'm sure you could argue that firing Bowlsby now makes The Big 12 look weak and instable.   But, everything I read is already suggesting that we are a defunct league.   I think it is time for some real out of the box thinking.  How about forming a committee of MBA's from each remaining school to analyze and suggest some real out of the box thinking. 
   

The Biggest Losers in the room are the College Athletes.   The boys and girls that committed to these remaining 8 schools under an assumption that The Big 12 will be a Power 5 conference and playing teams in a region that is easy to access.   That is those athletes not in college football or basketball. 

Matt Campbell's ISU Future ???

Matt Campbell has been rumored to leave ISU every year for the past three.   Every year someone has texted me and asked if I saw the latest rumor concerning Campbell.   Campbell has done a FANomenal job with the Iowa State Football program.   ISU has risen to national notoriety, during the short tenure of Campbell.   But, I saw this article, and I think it sums up some of my fears.   The rumors and speculation are already starting, and we haven't even played a down yet this season. 

Big 12 Coaches Speculation

If you want to know why Matt Campbell is so awesome.   Listen to his media day press conference.   At the 20:35 minute mark, Campbell is asked how he recruits with Big 12 Realignment going on.   It is awesome, and the confidence just oozes out of him.  Spoiler Alert: "We Win, and We'll Work to Continue to Win.   And if you want to play for a winning team come play for us!!!"

Big 12 Forfeit Policy 2021

The Times They Are A Changin'

 According to a statement provided by the Big 12, if a conference game is canceled due to a team not having enough players—due to COVID-19 or for any reason—that team will forfeit and will be credited with a loss in the conference standings. The opponent will earn a win in conference standings.  This Comish advocates getting vaccinated.  

Dear Hawk, Husker, and Badger Fan ....

 Dear Hawk, Husker, and Badger Fan, 

You think you are better than us ??? Do ya ??? Really ???   Better than the Big 12 or irate 8.  Yes you landed in the right conference.  Yes, you think you have a bigger fan base.   But, let's look at some of the facts 

• Big 12 Population in millions                 
  
• Iowa: 3.1, Kansas 2.9, Oklahoma: 3.9, WV: 1.8 = 11.7
• Big Ten Population in millions
• Iowa: 3.1, Wisconsin: 5.9, Nebraska: 1.9 = 10.9

By Comparison Ohio has a population of 11.6 million.   Georgia has a population of 10.6.   Big Ten fan, you really aren't that much different than remaining 8 schools in The Big 12. 

• Big 12 TV Markets
• Kansas City: 34th, OK City: 44th, Des Moines/Ames: 68th, Wichita: 70th
• Big Ten TV Markets
• Milwaukee: 37th, Des Moines/Ames: 68th, Green Bay, 69th, Omaha: 72nd

Nielson TV Market Rankings